March 2016, the iron and steel industry has finally ended the 15 consecutive month of losses, ushered in the first profit, the overall operation of the steel industry has improved significantly. But at the same time, a quarter of the cumulative loss is still up to $, an increase of losses of 44.26%, the steel industry difficult situation has not changed.
In this regard, analysts pointed out that fixed asset investment growth decline and change in the investment structure, leading to the downstream main steel industry growth rate down, iron and steel production continued at a high level lack of support, in the background of steel enterprises in large resumption of production, social stock rebound, difficult situation has to change. Therefore, the steel prices still need to continue to resolve excess capacity, product upgrades.
Improvement even loss of 15 months of the first profit
After 15 months of continuous losses, the steel industry has finally ushered in the first profit. From authoritative sources, into the Steel Association statistics of large and medium-sized steel enterprises, in March the whole industry to achieve a profit of over a billion yuan, compared to January loss of $- $billion, the overall operation of the steel industry has improved significantly.
However, the authority also admitted that, although the March earnings situation has improved, but the situation has not changed the iron and steel industry, the situation has not changed. Especially from a quarter of view, into the Steel Association statistics of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises realized a total profit of -87.48 billion, is still in a state of loss. At the same time, despite the loss of enterprises and households losses monthly downward trend, but a quarter of the cumulative losses still reached 151.26 billion yuan, an increase 46.41 billion yuan, increasing losses 44.26%.
In recent years, the steel industry continued to face the grim situation of low prices, high cost, resulting in further decline in the economic efficiency of iron and steel enterprises, how to survive in the winter has become the subject of the entire industry. However, has been released from the listed steel prices in the first quarter performance, the cold has floated several warm. Data show that as of April 25, the existing 10 listed steel companies published a notice of a quarter, of which there are six year on year performance of the company significantly reduced losses, or an increase of, including Shagang shares, losses of Liuzhou Iron and Steel shares, three steel Minguang etc..
Even in a huge loss of large steel enterprises, the first quarter of this year compared to last year, the fourth quarter of the chain improved significantly. In addition to the company pre Hi, * ST Shaogang, Jiuquan Hongxing, Anshan Iron and Steel shares, Valin Iron & steel and other companies in the first quarter despite reported losses compared to the same period, but has been achieved significantly reduced losses.
China Steel Association relevant responsible person revealed that in March the whole industry realized losses, due to iron ore raw material costs fell slightly, and the price of steel rebound. With the advent of the two quarter of the traditional peak season of steel, the steel industry operating conditions will be eased. But he also stressed that due to the fixed asset investment growth decline and the investment structure change, coupled with lower mainly by steel industry growth rate down, steel market demand to high growth, iron and steel production continued at a high level of lack of support, lack of market demand pattern has not changed.
He also pointed out that rising steel prices in the first quarter of this year, companies take the initiative to reduce production, was forced to stop production, inventory is low, long-term irrational down after the normal repair factors, but due to 3 months after the resumption of production, production enterprises increased, the market oversupply situation is difficult to reverse, steel prices is also very difficult to rise substantially.
Source of real estate to pick up the increase in speculation
As a matter of fact, the main reason for the iron and steel industry to pick up is in iron and steel industry, a large number of production background, large area of the real estate industry to pick up, the increased demand, the role of supply and demand change, and brought up.
My network of information director Xu Xiangchun said that in the first quarter of the steel industry in the first fifteen months after the profit again, but also the highest level since the financial crisis. The reason on the one hand is because since the end of last year, some steel mills was forced to stop production, to reduce the market supply, inventory decline; on the other hand, real estate and infrastructure over the expected recovery, new project investment rebounded sharply, driven by domestic steel market demand to pick up.
National Bureau of statistics, Ningji zhe said recently, since this year, expanding domestic demand, the real estate industry has seen positive changes. Ning Jizhe introduction, a quarter of the national real estate sales area grew 33.1%, 26.6 percentage points higher than last year to accelerate the growth of commercial housing sales is an increase of 54.1%, 39.7 percentage points to speed up. Therefore, in the real estate sales driven by the new housing construction area, the purchase of land area, investment has increased significantly.
"Precisely because of the above situation, the imbalance between supply and demand has been broken, steel prices rose rapidly." Xu Xiangchun said.
Indeed, the Bureau of statistics data show that a quarter of the country's crude steel production 192 million 10 thousand tons, down 3.2%, a decline of 1.5 percentage point increase over the same period, 262 million 300 thousand tons of steel production, an increase of zero. At the same time, a quarter of the country's fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) 85843 yuan, an increase of 10.7% (net of price factors, the actual growth of 13.8%), compared with last year increased by 0.7 percentage points. Investment in real estate, with the first tier cities driven, the real estate market to pick up significantly, a quarter of the national real estate development investment 17677 billion yuan, representing a nominal growth of 6.2% (after deducting price factors, the actual growth of 9.1%), the growth rate than in January to February significantly improve 3.2 percentage points.
In addition, in addition to the substantial growth in the actual investment driven demand increases, the futures market is also assists. Xu Xiangchun said that this year, due to a large number of credit delivery, the demand for steel from continuing to decline gradually stabilized and even rebound. From the point of view of the market point of view, for the bulk of